International Macroeconomics
Lectures by
Giancarlo Corsetti
EUI February-March 2007
This page will be updated during the next few weeks. Some links may not work or may be out-of-date
This is series of six lecture in international macroeconomics, focusing on the international transmission mechanism. The lectures combine current relevant policy issues with long-standing questions about macroeconomic interdependence. The main goals is to learn about recent development in the field, and identify possible directions to develop policy-friendly general equilibrium models of the international economy. There will be a few core reading each day, denoted with a star in the reading list to follow.
The first provides an analytical approach to the core transmission mechanism in general equilibrium, providing a guide to understand the performance of large DSGE models used by researchers and policymakers. The second lecture provides time-series evidence on the transmission mechanism of productivity shocks.
The third lecture moves on portfolio models in open economy (general equilibrium).
The forth and fifth lectures addresses issues in monetary transmission and policy design in open economy.
The sixth lecture analyzes international dimensions of fiscal policies.
Lectures and suggested homework may/may not be posted during the lecture period.
Lecture 1 and 2. International transmission mechanism: core analytical and empirical issues
Lecture notes: analytical model
Lecture notes: quantitative model
1. The ABC of the international transmission in a stylized two-goods, two-country model
- Complete markets: terms of trade spillovers are positive
- Incomplete markets: wealth effects, relative demand and international price adjustment under financial autarky
- A generalization to bond-only economies: shock persistence and trade elasticities.
- * Section 2 of Corsetti, Giancarlo, Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks", mimeo. (new version 2006, section 2).
2. A look at the data: consumption risk sharing and the international transmission of productivity shocks in G7 countries
- * Corsetti Dedola and Leduc: Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries
Important references:
- Baxter Marianne 1995, International trade and business cycle", in Gene Grossman and Ken Rogoff (eds) Handbook of International Economics, North Holland
- Obsteld M. and K. Rogoff, The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?, NBER macro annual 2000
- Backus, David K., and Gregor W. Smith, [1993]. ``Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-traded Goods,'' Journal of International Economics 35, 297-316
- V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, and Ellen R. McGrattan (CKM) Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?
Lecture 3. Consumption risk insurance and portfolio diversification
- Cole and Obstfeld economies and portfolio diversification
- Portfolio diversification in open economies: recent results.
- Obtfeld and Rogoff book, Chapter 5
- Cole H. and M. Obstfeld, "Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How much do financial markets matter?" JME 1991, 28: 3-24
- Corsetti and Pesenti "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence" QJE 2001
- * Heatcote and Perri 2004, The International Diversification Puzzle is not as bad as you think
- * Devereux Michael B and Alan Sutherland "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models"
- * Obstfeld's Ohlin Lecture: International Risk Sharing and the Cost of Trade
Lecture 4. Monetary transmission
Lecture 5. Exchange rate volatility and price stability.
- Real and monetary determinants of pass-through
- Fundamental models of exchange rate volatility
- A theoretical perspectives on empirical models of pass-through
- Bacchetta and an Wincoop A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade Journal of International Economics
- Backus, David K., Patrick J. Kehoe, and Finn E. Kydland [1995]. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," in Thomas F. Cooley (ed.) Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 331-56.
- * Corsetti Dedola and Leduc DSGE models with high exchange rate volatility and low pass-through, with Luca Dedola and Sylvain Leduc, REVISED MARCH 2006. International Finance Discussion Papers of the Federal Reserve Board, no. 845; CEPR dp 5377
- CKM
- Corsetti and Pesenti, "Endogenous Pass-through and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Model of Self-validating Exchange Rate Regimes", mimeo
- * Corsetti and Dedola Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination. Old version with longer discussion of multiple equilibrium
- Engel Devereux and Storgaard Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance, Journal of International Economics
Lecture 6. International transmission of fiscal policy
Lecture notes
- An analytical inspection of different transmission channels
- Crowding out in open economies: theory and some empirical evidence
- The debates on the consumption multiplier
- Corsetti and Mueller Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense, prepared for Economic Policy. This version: March 15.
- Monacelli Perotti Fiscal Policy, Trade Balance and the Real Exchange, Rate: Implications for International Risk Sharing, mimeo 2006
- Kim and Roubini Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate
The following book will be often referred to:
Other relevant books:
Information online: A good source of references is the Global Macro Homepage by Nouriel Roubini.
Classic reference book:
Dornbusch, R. Open Economy Macroeconomics. Basic Books, Inc. Publishers, 1980.
Frenkel, J. and A. Razin, Fiscal Policies in the World Economy. (Cambridge,
Massachusetts: MIT Press).
Jones, R., and P. Kenen, eds., Handbook of International Economics, Vol. I and
II (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1985).
Mundell, R., International Economics, Macmillan, 1968.
More readings (miscellaneous):
The current debate on global imbalances
On PPP and the law of one price
A new emerging consensus? Current debates on the role of tradable vs nontradable price movements in driving real exchange rate fluctuations, and on the speed of convergence.
Background reading: * Rogoff K. The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle, Journal of Economic Literature 1996
What drives local currency price stability?
(a) Relative price of tradables (deviations from the law of one price plus terms of trade)
(b) Relative prices of non tradables
- * The Importance of Nontradable Goods' Prices in Cyclical Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations by Ariel Burstein, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, mimeo 2005
- Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate, by Ariel Burstein,Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo, published in the Journal of Political Economy, August 2005. Includes data and replication materials.
(c) Price discrimination?
- *
Corsetti and Dedola: Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination Journal of International Economics, 2005, Firms problem.- Dornbusch R. "Exchange Rates and Prices", American Economic Review, 1987, 83-106
Recent evidence: * Gopinath and Rigobon "Sticky Borders" mimeo, 2006
Testing for PPP
(a) Aggregation bias in classical tests of PPP
- * Jean Imbs, Haroon Mumtaz Helene Rey, Morten Ravn "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate" Aggregating prices with different half-life induce an upward bias in estimating half-life: the sum of a stationary process and a non-stationary process is a non-stationary process. This paper has generated a debate. Get a summary. Also, "Aggregation Bias" DOES Explain the PPP Puzzle: contains the answer by the four authors above to Engel's criticisms.
(b) Tests allowing for costs of arbitrage
- Maurice Obstfeld, Alan M. Taylor -- "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited" NBER Working Paper No. W6053 Issued in June 1997 See also OConnell, P, 1998, The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity, Journal of International Economics, 44, February, 1-19.
(c) Additional econometric problems
Macroeconomics of market dynamics
- Models with firm entry and adjustment at the extensive margin
- International transmission and extensive margins
- Bergin and Corsetti Towards a theory of firm entry and stabilization policy, October 2005. NBER wp 11821, CEPR dp 53
- Corsetti Martin and Pesenti Productivity spillovers, terms of trade and the `home market effect', CEPR DP 4964 NBER WP 11165
- Fabio Ghironi and Marc J. Melitz (Harvard University), "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms" QJE 2005