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Herbert Kitschelt (Duke University, USA) gives a talk on “Secular Electoral Partisan Realignment in US Presidential Elections. Evidence from Vote Switchers”

Dates:
  • Wed 10 Oct 2018 15.00 - 17.00
  Add to Calendar 2018-10-10 15:00 2018-10-10 17:00 Europe/Paris Herbert Kitschelt (Duke University, USA) gives a talk on “Secular Electoral Partisan Realignment in US Presidential Elections. Evidence from Vote Switchers”

SPS Departmental Seminar Series

Abstract:
American voters have realigned among the two dominant parties based on income and education levels. The paper argues that the interaction of education and income provides a more insightful—and stark—display of these changes than treating each separately. The paper first presents macro-evidence about the tectonic shifts of education-income partisan realignment. It then develops micro-level propositions about the propensity of different income-education groups to respond by party switching to partisan politicians’ cues on first-dimension programmatic politics of economic distribution and/or second dimension politics of citizenship, race, and social governance. Empirical evidence then shows that the old “core” partisan groups of the New Deal alignment (low-education/low-income voters on the Democratic Party side, high-education/high-income voters on the Republican side) switch parties primarily motivated by second dimension politics. The “swing” groups in the New Deal alignment (high-education/low-income and low-education/high-income voters), however, switch parties based on considerations motivated by both dimensions. They become the core groups of the emerging US partisan alignment in an information-based economy. The 2016 Trump-Clinton contest extended the long-term incremental dynamic of secular realignment, without profoundly altering it.

Herbert Kitschelt, Duke University and Philipp Rehm, Ohio State University
Paper prepared for the 114th annual meeting of the American Political Science Association,
Boston, August 29-September 2, 2018

Refectory, Badia Fiesolana DD/MM/YYYY
  Refectory, Badia Fiesolana

SPS Departmental Seminar Series

Abstract:
American voters have realigned among the two dominant parties based on income and education levels. The paper argues that the interaction of education and income provides a more insightful—and stark—display of these changes than treating each separately. The paper first presents macro-evidence about the tectonic shifts of education-income partisan realignment. It then develops micro-level propositions about the propensity of different income-education groups to respond by party switching to partisan politicians’ cues on first-dimension programmatic politics of economic distribution and/or second dimension politics of citizenship, race, and social governance. Empirical evidence then shows that the old “core” partisan groups of the New Deal alignment (low-education/low-income voters on the Democratic Party side, high-education/high-income voters on the Republican side) switch parties primarily motivated by second dimension politics. The “swing” groups in the New Deal alignment (high-education/low-income and low-education/high-income voters), however, switch parties based on considerations motivated by both dimensions. They become the core groups of the emerging US partisan alignment in an information-based economy. The 2016 Trump-Clinton contest extended the long-term incremental dynamic of secular realignment, without profoundly altering it.

Herbert Kitschelt, Duke University and Philipp Rehm, Ohio State University
Paper prepared for the 114th annual meeting of the American Political Science Association,
Boston, August 29-September 2, 2018


Location:
Refectory, Badia Fiesolana

Affiliation:
Department of Political and Social Sciences

Type:
Seminar series

Discussant:
Prof. Herbert Kitschelt (Duke University, USA)

Organiser:
Professor Elias Dinas (EUI - Department of Political and Social Sciences)

Contact:
Jennifer Rose Dari (EUI - Department of Political and Social Sciences) - Send a mail
 
 

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