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Anna Getmansky (London School of Economics and Political Science) gives a talk on “War and Politics: How and Why Wars Affect Individual Level Attitudes and Behaviors”

Dates:
  • Wed 09 Jan 2019 12.00 - 13.30
  Add to Calendar 2019-01-09 12:00 2019-01-09 13:30 Europe/Paris Anna Getmansky (London School of Economics and Political Science) gives a talk on “War and Politics: How and Why Wars Affect Individual Level Attitudes and Behaviors”

SPS Departmental Seminar Series Abstract: Do war-related casualties affect political attitudes? Do attitude shifts translate into changes in voting behavior? Evidence from the US and UK offers that exposure to conflict affects turnout, support for incumbent leaders, and views on key political issues. In this paper, we elaborate on the existing literature, analyzing public opinion and spatially-disaggregated voting data from Israel, to study the political consequences of the Yom Kippur War. What makes this war particularly informative is its unexpected eruption during an election year. At the time, The Israeli National Election Studies completed two waves of public opinion polls before the war, and three additional polls in the post-war period. Comparing pre- and post-war survey responses, we find that the war increased the salience of security problems compared to social and economic issues; it lowered public support for center-left incumbent leaders, and increased support for the hawkish right-wing opposition. Additionally, following the war, some respondents—especially those not involved in politics—exhibit a greater willingness to vote. To determine the behavioral consequences of attitudinal change, we supplement our public opinion study with a difference in difference analysis, to identify the causal effects of war-related localized combatant deaths on turnout and support for incumbent parties.

Refectory DD/MM/YYYY
  Refectory

SPS Departmental Seminar Series Abstract: Do war-related casualties affect political attitudes? Do attitude shifts translate into changes in voting behavior? Evidence from the US and UK offers that exposure to conflict affects turnout, support for incumbent leaders, and views on key political issues. In this paper, we elaborate on the existing literature, analyzing public opinion and spatially-disaggregated voting data from Israel, to study the political consequences of the Yom Kippur War. What makes this war particularly informative is its unexpected eruption during an election year. At the time, The Israeli National Election Studies completed two waves of public opinion polls before the war, and three additional polls in the post-war period. Comparing pre- and post-war survey responses, we find that the war increased the salience of security problems compared to social and economic issues; it lowered public support for center-left incumbent leaders, and increased support for the hawkish right-wing opposition. Additionally, following the war, some respondents—especially those not involved in politics—exhibit a greater willingness to vote. To determine the behavioral consequences of attitudinal change, we supplement our public opinion study with a difference in difference analysis, to identify the causal effects of war-related localized combatant deaths on turnout and support for incumbent parties.


Location:
Refectory

Affiliation:
Department of Political and Social Sciences

Type:
Seminar series

Organiser:
Prof. Elias Dinas (EUI - Department of Political and Social Sciences)

Contact:
Jennifer Rose Dari (EUI - Department of Political and Social Sciences) - Send a mail

Discussant:
Anna Getmansky (London School of Economics and Political Science)
 
 

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