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The Impact of Immigration on Natives’ Fertility: Evidence from Syrians in Turkey

Dates:
  • Tue 18 Feb 2020 14.00 - 16.00
  Add to Calendar 2020-02-18 14:00 2020-02-18 16:00 Europe/Paris The Impact of Immigration on Natives’ Fertility: Evidence from Syrians in Turkey

A presentation within the Inequality Working Group

The discussion on whether immigration can solve the problems of population aging often focus on the fertility of immigrants. Additionally, standard projections consider the impact of migration on population growth but typically assume that the natives’ fertility does not change in response to migration. By contrast, we show that the native fertility is affected by immigration. We use the Syrian mass migration to specific Turkish provinces shortly after the 2011 civil war as an exogenous source of variation in exposure to immigration and show that natives’ fertility in the affected provinces increased relative to the provinces that are less affected. Our findings are consistent across fertility measures both at the aggregate and individual levels using separate datasets. We provide further analyses to test four potential mechanisms and to show heterogeneity in the fertility response by population subgroups. We find that the factors related to changes in labour market outcomes of natives and transmission of fertility norms via natives’ social interactions with Syrians can plausibly explain the increase in the fertility of specific native groups.

Sala del Capitolo - Badia Fiesolana DD/MM/YYYY
  Sala del Capitolo - Badia Fiesolana

A presentation within the Inequality Working Group

The discussion on whether immigration can solve the problems of population aging often focus on the fertility of immigrants. Additionally, standard projections consider the impact of migration on population growth but typically assume that the natives’ fertility does not change in response to migration. By contrast, we show that the native fertility is affected by immigration. We use the Syrian mass migration to specific Turkish provinces shortly after the 2011 civil war as an exogenous source of variation in exposure to immigration and show that natives’ fertility in the affected provinces increased relative to the provinces that are less affected. Our findings are consistent across fertility measures both at the aggregate and individual levels using separate datasets. We provide further analyses to test four potential mechanisms and to show heterogeneity in the fertility response by population subgroups. We find that the factors related to changes in labour market outcomes of natives and transmission of fertility norms via natives’ social interactions with Syrians can plausibly explain the increase in the fertility of specific native groups.


Location:
Sala del Capitolo - Badia Fiesolana

Affiliation:
Department of Political and Social Sciences

Type:
Working group

Contact:
Monika Rzemieniecka (EUI - Department of Political and Social Sciences) - Send a mail

Organiser:
Prof. Fabrizio Bernardi
Prof. Juho Härkönen

Speaker:
Dr Berkay Ozcan (London School of Economics)

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