The problem of over-generalization: NATO enlargement and the spread of democracy

• Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies

This presentation is taken from the edited volume by Rachel A. Epstein and Oliver Kaplan, Responsible Engagement: A New Imperative for Social Scientists (Oxford University Press, forthcoming in 2023).

In the run-up to the first North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s enlargement to post-communist countries in 1999 and after, scholars and policymakers weighed in on the merits of the policy. While much of the literature provided critical insight to the debate, there are also multiple instances of researchers overstating their claims, overgeneralising their findings from previous points of time forward, or failing to acknowledge the ways in which their political priors about the importance of Western-Russian relations informed their conclusions. Policymakers also selected only confirmatory historical evidence to justify their policies, without ever discussing with constituents the possible risks of any given course of action. This article explores the early and more recent debates about NATO’s democratising effects, its internationalizing influence on target states, and its impact on Russian revanchism, including vis-à-vis Ukraine. Comparing early claims to subsequent developments and findings, Rachel A. Epstein suggests seven strategies geared toward improving academic engagement with policymakers. Three of these suggestions are reminders of best practice in research around exploring alternative explanations and study limits. More controversially, however, the findings here point to the limits of objectivity. In particular, the striving for objectivity has led scholars to hide their biases rather than incorporate them explicitly in debate, which has in turn undermined the quality of discourse.

Rachel A. Epstein is Professor and Senior Associate Dean at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. She is currently at the Schuman Centre as a Robert Schuman Fellow.

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