The Syrian Conflict: Unpacking the Stalemate

Organised by

• Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
• MED: Middle East Directions Programme

This conference will close the second stage of the Wartime and Post-Conflict in Syria project (WPCS), which has provided operational and strategic analysis of the prospects, challenges, trends and policy options in the Syrian conlict since October 2018. The Wartime and Post-Conflict in Syria project (WPCS) is funded by the European Union and implemented in partnership with the Center for Operational Analysis and Research (COAR).

Out of the media spotlight and the priorities of Western decision-makers – a trend accentuated by the war in Ukraine – the Syrian conflict in 2022 is still in a state of a protracted stalemate with high degrees of territorial fragmentation, intractability and dominance of third-party states. The country is effectively divided in four main areas controlled by different actors, each of which is reliant on and restrained by external states involved both militarily and politically. While large-scale military operations have wound down, economic collapse and destruction of the social fabric are the defining characteristics of the present phase, making the future look bleak for Syrians as the country is facing a proliferation of challenges. Economically, the population is enduring a worsening situation with increasing levels of poverty, food insecurity and inequality. At the security level, the situation remains fragile and volatile, and the country is plagued by several interrelated challenges: a resurgence of violence, an increasing crime rate, smuggling of licit and illicit goods and a resurgence of Islamic State, to name but a few. Politically, the prospects of conflict resolution, including a political transition and genuine nationwide reconciliation process, have never been so slim.

The conference brings together researchers from the WPCS project and other distinguished universities and think tanks, and policymakers and practitioners. They will discuss the extent to which the protracted stalemate has stimulated a reordering of power structures at the local level; how the multiple and intertwined socio-economic crises affect local populations and how the main surviving warring parties are responding; how recent or looming external shocks could impact the short- to medium-term trajectory of the conflict; and how the EU and its Member States may adapt their responses to the current situation.

* This event is produced with the financial support of the European Union. Its contents are the sole responsibility of the organisers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

Links:

• Programme
• Data Protection at the EUI