Governments, Public Opinion, and Social Policy Change in Western Europe

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

PhD thesis defence by Daniel Alves Fernandes

This dissertation investigates how public opinion and government partisanship affect social policy. It brings an innovative perspective that links the idea of democratic representation to debates about the welfare state. The general claim made here is that social policy is a function of public and government preferences. This claim hinges on two critical premises.

The first relates to the general mechanisms that underlie government representation. Politicians have electoral incentives to align their actions with what citizens want. They may respond to public opinion indirectly by updating their party agendas, which can serve as the basis for social policy decisions in case they get elected. They may also respond directly by introducing welfare reforms that react to shifts in public opinion during their mandates.

The second premise concerns how citizens and politicians structure their preferences over welfare. These preferences fall alongside two dimensions. First, general attitudes about how much should the state intervene in the economy to reduce inequality and promote economic well-being (how much policy). Second, the specific preferences about which social programmes should get better funding (what kind of policy).

Daniel Fernandes is a PhD candidate in Political and Social Sciences at the European University Institute. His research focuses on governments, public opinion and social policy. In December 2022, he starts working at Leiden University as a post-doctoral researcher for the project "TransEuroWorks – Transforming European Work and Social Protection – A New Proactive Welfare State Fit for The Future World of Work."