The irregular pendulum of democracy in post-Yugoslav successor states

• Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies
• GGP: Global Governance Programme

Join Dimitri A. Sotiropoulos as he explores the deeper causes of the reversal of democratisation in North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.

This seminar presents the main findings of the research monograph 'The irregular pendulum of democracy: populism, clientelism and corruption in post-Yugoslav successor states' (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2023), published by the speaker. It is a book placing three post-Yugoslav states (North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia) in the wider debate on comparative democratisation and erosion of democracy. The book asks why and how contemporary democracies backslide, even if they have embarked on the road to further democratisation. What are the deeper causes of the reversal of democratisation and why – even if this reversal stops – is it so hard for democratisation to get back on track?

The metaphor of pendulum-like movements implies that unconsolidated democratic regimes may swing between a democratic end (fully developed liberal democracy) and a non-democratic end (competitive authoritarianism). In the mid-2000s all three Post-Yugoslav states started sliding towards a competitive authoritarian regime. Recently, North Macedonia and Montenegro have embarked on the road to democratic recovery. The two countries have performed better than Serbia, but have had little success so far, because they too have been constrained by populism, clientelism and corruption. These are understood in the book as three different types of state-society relations which - in combination with elite strategies and choices - keep the pendulum from travelling all the way to the democratic end. The book, which is influenced by the theoretical framework of historical institutionalism, is based on 47 personal interviews with activists, politicians and experts, conducted in the three countries (in 2016-2022) and on reports of the EU and the OSCE, government documents and articles of the press and electronic media.