Clientelism –– generally contrasted with programmatic politics –– is a pervasive challenge to democratic development. The demise of clientelism substantively necessitates citizens to conceive of their interest as involving public goods, and to set aside client- patron norms and loyalties in favour of a belief in political rights and equality.
The three studies presented in this dissertation investigate two possible engines of programmatisation –– one operating inside representative institutions, and one trying to complement them –– namely: shocks to collective wellbeing, and collective deliberation in democratic citizen assemblies.
The studies are situated in Lebanon, a country long ruled by an entrenched elite of former warlords and oligarchs anchoring their reign in the weaponisation of confessional cleavages and systemic clientelism.
Study Nr. I examines the electoral impact of the 2020 Beirut port explosion, widely perceived to be caused by systemic corruption. By analysing neighbourhood-level exposure to the explosion and its effects on voting patterns in the 2022 elections, the study finds that higher exposure to the blast increased support for anti-establishment and new entrant parties running on decidedly programmatic agendas, and decreased loyalty to the regime.
Studies Nr. II and III, which build on two original survey experiments fielded on a nationally representative sample of Lebanese citizens, investigate the potential of deliberative citizen assemblies (DCAs) to foster programmatic politics in Lebanon. Study Nr. II assesses legitimacy perceptions towards DCAs, and finds that while DCAs are accorded higher legitimacy scores than oligarchic elite policy making, citizens still prefer representative institutions in principle, regardless of their disillusionment with their current functioning. This said, in international comparison, DCA legitimacy perceptions are unusually high. Study Nr. III directly investigates citizens’ willingness to participate in and approval of DCAs –– both in categoric terms, and via analysing verbatim responses. We reveal significant skepticism towards DCAs fuelled fundamentally by distrust in institutions, and lacks of political ecacy. Furthermore, results indicate a disconnect between principal approval of DCAs, and willingness to participate in them, fuelled by the fact that political participation comes at various costs.
Julian Vierlinger is interested in corruption, democratic development, and the meaning of citizenship across different socio-political contexts, particularly the Middle East and North Africa. His current research focuses on the persistence and demise of Lebanese citizens’ loyalty to hierarchical norms in politics, as well as their openness to democratic innovations such as deliberative citizen assemblies. Julian holds a BA and MA from SciencesPo Paris, and was an exchange student and researcher at the American University of Beirut. During his PhD, Julian taught at SciencesPo Paris, the CEU Invisible University of Ukraine Project, the University of Sarajevo, and held a fellowship at the Centre de Recherches Internationales in Paris. He furthermore is a volunteer EMT at the Italian Red Cross, and participated in two humanitarian missions to the Polish-Ukrainian border. In September, Julian assumed a post at the Austrian Ministry of the Interior.