Seminar series A gravity-cleavage model of vote switching Add to calendar 2025-05-20 16:00 2025-05-20 17:30 Europe/Rome A gravity-cleavage model of vote switching Sala Triaria Villa Schifanoia YYYY-MM-DD Print Share: Share on Facebook Share on BlueSky Share on X Share on LinkedIn Send by email Scheduled dates May 20 2025 16:00 - 17:30 CEST Sala Triaria, Villa Schifanoia Organised by Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies the Robert Schuman Centre Seminar Series Join Gary Marks as he presents recent research co-authored with Jacob Gunderson at the final 2025 Robert Schuman Centre's Seminar Series. At this event, Professor Gary Marks will present a paper introducing a gravity-cleavage model for predicting voter flows between political parties. The model has two components: the first draws on Newtonian gravity theory to establish a baseline for the attraction between parties; the second incorporates cleavage theory, analysing how the distinctiveness of a party’s social base constrains vote switching. The model’s predictions are tested using Dutch and Swiss household panel data, along with data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. The findings show that the model accounts for the majority of variation in voter flows.