From economic voting to green backlash

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

This session of the Political Behaviour Colloquium features a presentation by Paloma Abril Poncela, EUI researcher at the Department of Political and Social Sciences.

This study examines how the Mayan Train’s economic and environmental effects shaped voting behaviour in the presidential elections along its route. The Mayan Train, one of Mexico's most ambitious infrastructure projects, has sparked intense debate over its socio-environmental impacts. It offers a unique lens to study the intersection of economic development and environmental politics. While such projects promise economic benefits, they can also impose significant environmental costs, influencing political preferences in complex ways. Using spatial and intensity-based difference-in-differences approaches, this study analyses electoral outcomes in areas affected by the train. In regions with pre-existing rights of way, where minimal deforestation accompanied economic benefits and infrastructure improvements, voters rewarded the incumbent party, consistent with economic voting theory. Conversely, in areas marked by extensive deforestation and environmental degradation, even if economic development was present, voters punished the incumbent and significantly increased their support for the Green Party. These findings show how when voters face a trade-off between economic development and environmental harm, the latter can outweigh the perceived benefits and generate an environmental backlash.

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