Join this discussion where experts examine Taiwan’s geopolitical significance, evolving deterrence strategies, and the broader implications for regional and global security.
Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine, in which it attempted to seize an independent country it considers historically part of ‘Russkiy Mir’, has cast a harsh light on the concept of deterrence, prompting America and its East Asian allies, notably Japan, to reconsider how to deter any potential Chinese decision to invade or coerce Taiwan into submitting to unification. The Biden administration’s strategy of combining ‘integrated deterrence’ with a move away from ‘strategic ambiguity’ has made deterrence appear more credible, though not necessarily more stabilising, raising questions about what a Trump presidency might now bring to the Taiwan question—arguably the most dangerous flashpoint in the world.
Indeed, Taiwan sits on the world’s geopolitical frontline. De facto independent since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, Taiwan is an island of 23 million people, one of the world's most prosperous economies, home to the manufacturer of most of the world's high-tech semiconductors, and a vibrant, successful democracy. Yet its status remains contested, with the People’s Republic under Xi Jinping increasingly assertive that reunification must be achieved and that this issue cannot be perpetually deferred. This talk will address this dilemma and discuss the most viable response to what appears to be an intractable problem. The authors of two recent books on Taiwan—Kerry Brown’s The Taiwan Story: How a Small Island Will Dictate the Global Future (London: Penguin, 2024) and Bill Emmott’s Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan (London: Routledge, 2024)—will provide security and historical perspectives, while Professor Chikako Ueki will illuminate Japan’s role, past and present.
Kerry Brown, The Taiwan Story: How a Small Island Will Dictate the Global Future, London: Penguin, 2024.
Bill Emmott, Deterrence, Diplomacy and the Risk of Conflict Over Taiwan, London: Routledge, 2024.