PhD thesis defence by Emil Kamalov
This dissertation examines how political emigrants from authoritarian regimes sustain extraterritorial opposition politics despite the risks of transnational repression and divergent host-country responses. Political emigrants—those forced abroad primarily for opposing autocratic regimes—remain engaged in homeland politics through protests, lobbying, and advocacy. Drawing on a unique multi-wave panel survey of over 18,000 Russian emigrants who fled after the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine (the OutRush project), the dissertation advances theoretical and empirical understanding of opposition abroad in the context of geopolitical tension and authoritarian reach.
The first chapter analyses how international relations and host-country politics shape emigrant activism. Leveraging the global survey and panel structure, it shows that emigrants in rival states align activism with host interests, while those in allied states maintain interest in homeland politics despite risks of repression. Democratic hosts enable visible activism; autocratic hosts push emigrants toward safer forms of dissent. Chapter two (with Ivetta Sergeeva) examines how diaspora organisations withstand repression. A conjoint experiment with nearly 6,000 emigrants reveals that the criminalisation of exile organisations by homeland regimes can backfire because it signals the authenticity and effectiveness of exile organisations in challenging the regime and increases support from the diaspora. Even in states allied with the homeland, exile organisations sustain support from the diaspora by enhancing the safety of transactions, underscoring the limits of transnational repression. Chapter three (with Ivetta Sergeeva) investigates solidarity and migrant-to-migrant assistance. A conjoint experiment with 2,000 respondents finds that emigrants support compatriots who flee the regime for reasons such as political persecution and ethnic minority status, and that this support is driven by a sense of political solidarity, collective responsibility, and guilt. Discrimination in rival states further reinforces political solidarity with anti-war compatriots. Chapter four (with Ivetta Sergeeva) documents the hidden costs authoritarian legacies impose on emigrants’ well-being. Survey and interview data show that repression, guilt, and discrimination weigh more heavily than economic integration, highlighting the deep psychological and social effects of an authoritarian homeland.
Together, these chapters offer an integrated account of extraterritorial opposition politics, emphasising the interplay of emigrant strategies, authoritarian repression, discrimination, and geopolitical context.
Emil Kamalov is a PhD candidate at the European University Institute in Florence, specializing in political behavior, repression, violence, and political emigration. He co-founded and co-leads two survey projects: OutRush, a panel survey of war-induced Russian migrants who left Russia from 2022 onwards, and ViolenceMonitor, a series of surveys focusing on intimate partner violence in Russia.
Website: www.emilkamalov.com. Email: [email protected].