Red zones

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

This session of the Political Behaviour Colloquium features a presentation by Elias Dinas, SPS Professor (EUI)

How do experiences of forced internal displacement shape political outcomes in displaced communities in the long run? We exploit two parallel cases of internal displacement, the forced evacuation of 1.5 million German and French citizens living inside the "Red Zones" along their shared border at the start of World War II. On both sides of the border, civilians were sent to what were considered safer parts of the respective country. In exile, displaced communities faced hardship and "othering", based on their status as linguistic or religious minorities in the respective host areas. They returned after one year of displacement when hostilities temporarily ceased after

the German occupation of Paris. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, we compare voting patterns of localities that were displaced between 1939 and 1940 to directly adjacent localities just outside the Red Zones that were not displaced. We find that displaced communities are 4-5 percentage points more likely to support radical right parties in the 2000s. This result holds for both Germany and France.

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