Malapportionment and electoral tourism in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

This session of the Political Behaviour Colloquium features a presentation by Michal Tulwin, PhD researcher at EUI

We ask whether malapportionment (different voters-per-mandate ratios) prompts voters to make same-day trips to places where a ballot counts more, and what that means for turnout and results. In Poland, large cities typically have lower vote power than nearby smaller municipalities as the split of mandates does not account for internal migrations since 2011. We assemble municipality-level data for the 2023 parliamentary election and compare election-day movements to the baseline 2019 parliamentary election, linking flows to measures of vote-power differences and travel distance. Our identification relies on election-day vs. baseline comparisons and spatial contrasts (border municipalities versus similar interior areas), with flexible controls for distance. Preliminary evidence shows larger inflows where vote power is higher, a sharp decay with distance, and negative spillovers to neighbouring destinations, suggesting reallocation toward higher leverage locations rather than an intrinsic border effect. These facts motivate a simple theoretical framework and will guide equilibrium-effect estimation (turnout and party shares) and quantitative calibration of counterfactuals (e.g., alternative apportionment or travel frictions).

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