Alternatives to nuclear deterrence: is Estonia defensible?

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

In the framework of the Swiss Chair Seminar Series, this event features a presentation by Matthew Evangelista (Cornell University).

Estonia represents a challenge for European security in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Its border city of Narva, with an 88 percent Russian population, half of whom lack Estonian citizenship, is particularly vulnerable. Although an outright invasion of Estonia is unlikely while Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine, Narva might still represent a tempting target for Russian 'hybrid warfare', infiltration, or capture by 'salami-slicing tactics'. It that respect it resembles West Berlin during the Cold War, when the threat of escalation to nuclear war constituted NATO’s strategy for an otherwise indefensible enclave. This study explores alternatives to the policy of 'extended nuclear deterrence' and the catastrophic consequences of its failure. It assesses the prospects for conventional military defense and nonviolent civilian-based resistance, drawing on Gene Sharp’s work and recent Ukrainian experience.

Matthew Evangelista is President White Professor of History and Political Science Emeritus and former chair of the Department of Government at Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA. In Italy he served on the graduate faculty of the Catholic University of Milan and the universities of Bologna and Roma Tre, and on the comitato scientifico of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi in Turin. His most recent book is available to download for free through Open Access: Allied Air Attacks and Civilian Harm in Italy, 1940–1945: Bombing among Friends. Many other publications are linked to his website.