This session of BIQE working group will feature the presentation by EUI Researcher Ediz Topcuoglu, and Associate Research Fellow Salih Bora (Center for International Studies -Science Po).
Existing approaches to European integration are typically applied in isolation and use different evidentiary standards, which undermines cumulative theory building. This article addresses that problem by recasting four major theoretical traditions, Realist Intergovernmentalism, Liberal Intergovernmentalism, New Intergovernmentalism, and Neo‑Functionalism, as mutually exclusive rival hypotheses and comparing them on shared empirical ground through explicit Bayesian inference, in the hard case of defense integration. Drawing on Fairfield and Charman’s framework of logical Bayesianism, the analysis examines analytically discriminatory observations across four key episodes of European defense integration: the launch of the Common Security and Defence Policy, the creation of the European Defence Agency, the 2009 Defence Procurement Directives, and the establishment of the European Defence Fund. The findings show, first, that expected patterns of contestation and bargaining over earlier initiatives give Liberal Intergovernmentalism the strongest aggregate support, but, second, that the development trajectory of more recent industrial instruments associated with the European Defence Fund substantially increase the posterior plausibility of Neo‑Functionalist dynamics centered on supranational entrepreneurship and functional spillover. Methodologically, the article introduces Bayesian analysis to European studies and demonstrates how explicit Bayesian analysis can render theoretical priors and evidentiary judgements transparent and replicable, offering a systematic way to arbitrate among rival integration theories; substantively, it suggests that European defence integration is best understood through a sequenced account in which intergovernmental industrial logics dominate early phases while supranational mechanisms gain traction over time, challenging current mainline explanations and opening space for more nuanced synthetic models.
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