PhD Thesis Defence by Anna Savolainen
International Relations realist theory is interested in threat and national survival, but it typically focuses on great powers. Studying threat perceptions of small states in a highly vulnerable position – those whose national survival is more commonly at stake – can provide different insights into the concept of threat. This dissertation focuses on the case of Finland in the context of Russian aggressions against Ukraine 2014–2022. It asks how Russia’s actions were conceptualised and interpreted as a threat in Finland, ultimately leading the country to seek membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In the first empirical chapter, I show that despite similarities, Finland perceived a different threat than Sweden. The countries’ reactions diverged as Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Finland immediately sought protection from NATO, while Sweden attempted to continue non-alignment, coming round because of broader strategic considerations than the Russian threat. In the second empirical chapter, I examine Finnish fears of victimisation. Russia’s behaviour at the annexation of Crimea 2014 and attempted invasion of Ukraine 2022 heightened Finnish threat perceptions. However, comparisons with Ukraine as the victim also influenced how relevant the threat appeared. Finnish threat perceptions thus intensified through the aggressor and victim as components of the aggression. The third empirical chapter investigates how Finnish policymakers and the Finnish public conceptualised the Russian threat in the context of the Russia’s demands that NATO refrain from enlarging. Arguably, some leading policymakers feared Finland losing policymaking sovereignty, which partly motivated their choice of NATO membership. Meanwhile, the public feared Russian military aggression after the invasion and sought NATO membership to deter and defend against aggression. Together, the three empirical chapters provide perspectives on perceived threat within a neoclassical realist (NCR) framework with the guiding idea of threat as feared outcome rather than as an actor.
Anna Savolainen is a doctoral researcher at the Department of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute (EUI) and a researcher within the Northern European and Transatlantic Security (NOTS) research programme at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI). Her research interests relate notably to Finnish, Nordic, and European security and defence policy.
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