How war shapes welfare preferences

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

This session of the SPS Departmental Seminar Series features a presentation by Carina Schmitt, Professor of Comparative Public Policy at the University of Bamberg

This talk asks how interstate war reshapes social policy preferences in contemporary democracies. Focusing on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it challenges the conventional view that war primarily fosters solidarity and support for welfare expansion. I argue that wartime threat, fear, and uncertainty can also produce more exclusionary attitudes by strengthening insider–outsider distinctions and shifting deservingness perceptions toward native in-groups. At the same time, the effects of war are not uniform but depend on the type of exposure and individual vulnerability.

Empirically, the talk combines evidence from a survey experiment in Germany with observational data from Ukraine matched to geolocated conflict exposure. The findings suggest that direct exposure to violence increases national solidarity, while material hardship raises support for social spending. However, more distant wartime threat may simultaneously foster exclusionary welfare attitudes. Overall, the talk highlights the conditional and multifaceted impact of war on social policy preferences.

The Zoom link will be sent upon registration.