A new report, just released by the European University Institute (EUI) and the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) charts the present landscape of conflict-related risks to the European Union: ‘Global Risks to the EU’ is the first pan-European effort to assess expert perceptions of threats to the bloc’s unity, security, and prosperity.
Among the most pressing concerns identified by nearly 400 respondents is the spectre of a ceasefire in Ukraine dictated byon Russian terms. High- impact risks include United States isolationism, escalating hybrid warfare tactics, and the no durable peace in the Middle East.
The survey, conducted in 2024 -5, asked specialists in European politics to evaluate 30 predefined risks based on their likelihood and potential impact. Seven of these risks are directly linked to Russia, highlighting the ongoing volatility emanating from Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions. Experts point to the danger of renewed Russian military action in neighbouring non-NATO states and the pro-Russian government shifts in Georgia and, potentially, Moldova.
The findings also underscore mounting concerns about Europe’s dependence on US security guarantees. With President Donald Trump’s rhetoric signalling a possible retreat from transatlantic defence commitments, experts regard the withdrawal of US security assurances as a high-impact risk for the EU, on par with a Russian nuclear strike.
Cybersecurity emerges as another area of vulnerability, an almost imminent danger for the EU. Instability in the Middle East continues to loom large. Ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas, coupled with the possibility of a broader confrontation involving Iran, are high-impact threats. Irregular migration from the Middle East and North Africa scores as a source of threat to the EU as it might be exploited to sow deeper fragmentation within the EU.
While some risks, such as a NATO-Russia conflict or a Russian nuclear strike, are considered unlikely, their catastrophic potential keeps them on the radar, as these scenarios underline the enduring volatility of Europe’s security environment.
“The pressure on Ukraine to accept a rushed compromise with Russia is not just a strategic misstep; it’s an existential risk for the European Union’s security,” said Veronica Anghel, author of the study and researcher at the European University Institute. “Our survey shows overwhelming consensus among experts on this issue, cutting across academia, think tanks, and policymaking circles. European experts are also notably clear-eyed about the Kremlin’s nuclear rhetoric, seeing it for what it is. What’s striking is the level of alignment across the EU on all emerging threats—disproving the perceived contrasting opinions the public might get from general media consumption.”
The report also casts a wide net in assessing global risks, touching on potential flashpoints in East Asia, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Tensions surrounding China and Taiwan, as well as instability in areas like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, are highlighted as areas of concern.
This report seeks to provide strategic foresight for European foreign policy. Conducted at the EUI’s Robert Schuman Centre in collaboration with EUISS, the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS), the survey offers a comprehensive look at the challenges facing the EU in the year ahead.
Download the report.