The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which concluded on December 13, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates had mixed outcomes. The conference set out to evaluate the past 5-year collective efforts and progress regarding mitigation, adaptation, and finance for the first time. However, it showcased both successes and setbacks.
In this analysis, our faculty members who attended the conference provided a nuanced perspective on the key takeaways, breaking down the missed opportunities and articulating hopes for collective climate actions. Their reflections included the stalled negotiations on Article 6 and carbon markets, the historic focus on cities, and the Global Stocktake exercise.
Article 6 Carbon Markets negotiations come to a halt
Two weeks of intense negotiations at COP28 in Dubai they have failed to yield an agreement on Article 6 carbon markets, leaving the nascent UN carbon markets in uncertainty. The fundamental issues surrounding the aim and roles of carbon markets remained unresolved, with countries divided on their expectations. The clash between those advocating for unrestrained markets, influenced by a strong private sector presence, and more cautious nations defending safeguards and regulations led to profound disagreement.
Elena Marro (Research Associate, STG Climate) expressed her surprise at the conflicting outcomes, remarking, "The 28th Conference of the Parties did not deliver a tangible result for the operationalisation of international carbon markets as no consensus was reached on art.6. The outcome of the negotiations - or rather the lack of it - is somewhat unexpected given the high expectations on agreeing on art.6 expressed by the parties, including the host country, on the way to COP28."
Marro emphasised the challenge of bridging different perspectives and striking a deal, stating, "Concretely, the COP28 failure to agree on the operational aspects of international carbon markets implies another year of unclarity and possibly paused finance, in which market players may be tempted to wait for more detailed rules on the functioning of the mechanisms."
Despite the setback, Marro suggested that the voluntary carbon market could play a crucial role: ''Given this policy vacuum, the voluntary carbon market arguably gains more relevance to keep channelling much-needed climate finance and take the lead in shaping the rules of the game, maintaining environmental integrity at its core".
Global Stocktake: setting the stage for real-world action
Anna Ragnarsdottir (STG Policy Leader Fellow) offered an analysis of another key issue on the COP28 agenda—the first Global Stocktake (GST). Emphasising the significance of the GST as a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, Ragnarsdottir outlined the dire results of the technical evaluation conducted over the past two years. In terms of mitigation of climate change, the evaluation revealed that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees require a 43% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 from 2019 levels. However, the current trajectory indicates a 9% growth. Anna underscored that the key question at COP28 was not the technical evaluation itself but the political response to the GST.
She expressed optimism that the COP28 response to the GST would guide further climate action”, signalling the consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels. She also highlighted the positive outcome of having a blueprint for the next update of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), urging nations to include ambitious emission reduction targets aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. In essence, the COP28 response to the GST sets the stage for real-world action, with the hope that nations and other stakeholders will implement and follow through on their commitments to address the urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Historic focus on cities and youth engagement
COP28 marked a historic shift in focus towards cities, hosting the first-ever Local Climate Action Summit. Nicolas Azocar (STG Policy Leader Fellow) highlighted the significance, stating, "COP 28 was historical for cities: it hosted the first-ever Local Climate Action Summit. It counted with +250 Mayors from 60+ countries across six continents. 40+ announcements benefit cities directly."
Azocar noted a major achievement in the launch of the Coalition for High Ambition Multi-Level Partnerships (CHAMP), an initiative endorsed by 71 countries. The initiative aims to involve local and regional authorities in developing updated Nationally Determined Contributions, providing a formal space for cities in climate action discussions. Additionally, COP28 saw a significant commitment to children and youth, with unprecedented financial pledges, including the UAE's launch of a $30 billion fund for climate action.
Shriya Dayal (STG Master’s student) emphasised the powerful role of the youth movement, stating, "The youth movement is a powerful example of the role played by non-state actors in this multilateral process." Despite challenges, Dayal highlighted the importance of youth voices and called for a radical change in the global climate finance architecture rooted in justice and equity.
In conclusion, COP28 revealed positive strides and lingering challenges, underscoring the global community's persistent struggle to address the urgent climate emergency. It's crucial to acknowledge that the real impact on the climate crisis hinges on collective actions on the ground. While international agreements and conferences offer a framework, true change arises from tangible solutions, exerting pressure on policymakers, and nations actively contributing to global targets.
Learn more about how our faculty addresses these challenges and check out our upcoming event, the “EUI Climate Week” that will convene climate experts, policymakers and members of academia striving to set a better course for collective climate action.