A swaying US foreign policy and China’s re-emergence are often mentioned as the two major causes behind the crisis of the so-called 'liberal international order'. The Trump administration has brought to the surface a profound discontent with American grand strategy. The previous US government is often regarded as a point of discontinuity in Washington’s approach to international affairs. If, on the one side, the inauguration of the Biden administration has sparked a vivid debate on the return of a more internationalist foreign policy, on the other, the withdrawal from Afghanistan has provoked widespread criticism and relaunched the issue of continuity in foreign policy. Liberal internationalism has come out of the Afghan disaster rather weakened and shattered. As Beijing builds up its conventional and strategic arsenal, many have wondered whether it will use that for defensive or offensive purposes. What are the origins and nature of Chinese military modernisation, especially with regards to the nuclear domain? Understanding the rationale and direction of Beijing’s nuclear posture is crucial to assess the level of international stability/instability.
The authors of two newly-published books will engage in a conversation on how these factors interact and what they mean for international affairs. While liberals argue that US foreign policy can be interpreted through the different approaches of the administrations, Gabriele Natalizia contends that a structural perspective has still something to say with regards to Washington’s oscillations between engagement with world affairs and restraint. Beijing’s nuclear posture, on the other hand, is regarded as a constant element within China’s overall military policy since it has not formally changed in more than 50 years. This has produced some sort of optimism around Chinese strategic calculus. However, pieces of evidence from the first post-Mao decade– according to Lorenzo Termine - suggest otherwise and call for more analytical prudence.
Books presented:
Gabriele Natalizia, Renderli simili o inoffensivi. L'ordine liberale, gli Stati Uniti e il dilemma della democrazia. Carocci, Roma, 2021. (Making them similar or harmless. The liberal order, the United States and democracy promotion).
Lorenzo Termine, Tigri con le ali. La politica di difesa post-maoista e l’arma nucleare, Aracne Editrice, Roma, 2021. (Tigers with wings. China’s post-Mao defense policy and the nuclear weapon).