Partition, power sharing and peace

• Department of Political and Social Sciences

In the framework of the Swiss Chair Seminar Series, this session features a presentation by Lars-Erik Cederman (ETH Zentrum).

Does the partitioning of states along ethnic lines reduce conflict? While theorists drawing on the "security dilemma" argue that partition prevents conflict recurrence, others dispute these findings. Advancing in four analytical steps, we reconceptualise partition as decreased cohabitation in transnationally-defined ethnic groups dyads. Based on a global dataset (1946–2017), we find little evidence that partition reduces internal conflict, and its incomplete application increases this risk. The second step adopts a nationalist logic and tests whether partition reduces conflict if it eliminates dyadic ethno-political domination. Third, the analysis focuses on whether reduced dyadic domination makes civil conflict less likely, with or without border change. We show that power sharing can be at least as effective in reducing conflict as partition. The fourth step investigates the side effects of state splits on civil and interstate conflict. Generally, we find that partition may fuel instability both within and outside the dyad.

To receive the paper, please send an email to pia.dittmar@eui.eu.