Seminar series A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections A sharp right turn? Add to calendar 2024-02-14 15:30 2024-02-14 17:00 Europe/Rome A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections Sala Belvedere, Villa Schifanoia and online YYYY-MM-DD Print Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Send by email When 14 February 2024 15:30 - 17:00 CET Where Sala Belvedere, Villa Schifanoia and online Organised by Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies EGPP: European Governance and Politics Programme Join Simon Hix as he unveils a new forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections, exploring a predicted rightward shift and its implications. What will happen in the next European Parliament elections in June 2024, and what will be the political and policy consequences of the election outcome? Simon Hix will discuss the statistical modelling behind a new 'forecast' of the elections (together with Kevin Cunningham), and will compare the model's predictions to other 'nowcasts' based on current opinion poll standings of parties. The Hix-Cunningham model predicts a major shift to the right in the next EP, with 25% of MEPs on the populist right, the centre right EPP the 'pivotal' party instead of the Liberals, and a 'populist right' coalition with a majority of seats for the first time. The speaker will also discuss the potential political and policy consequences of this shift, such as the appointment of the next Commission and the direction of EU policies, for example on the EU’s climate change actions. Contact(s): Alessandra Caldini Scientific Organiser(s): Daniele Caramani (European University Institute) Lorenzo Cicchi (EUI) Speaker(s): Prof. Simon Hix (EUI - Department of Political and Social Sciences)