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Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies - European University Institute

Will the 2024 European Parliament elections shift right?

In a recent and well attended discussion, Professor Simon Hix presented his new electoral forecast for the upcoming European elections.

28 February 2024 | Event

On 14 February 2024, Professor Simon Hix presented a compelling forecast for the upcoming 2024 European Parliament elections, indicating a significant political shift to the right. In collaboration with Kevin Cunningham, Hix unveiled the Hix-Cunningham model, a statistical approach predicting the election outcomes and their potential impacts on EU policies and governance structures.

During the seminar, which was organised by the European Governance and Politics Programme, he delved into the intricate dynamics of the European Parliament's political landscape. His model suggests a notable increase in seats for right and centre-right party groups, with a ‘populist right block’ potentially securing more than 50% of the votes. This result would position the European People's Party (EPP) more to the right than the centre for its partners.

Hix highlighted the historical significance of this shift, stating that: "This will be the most right-wing parliament since the 1950s”. He then discussed the critical role of coalitions in shaping the European Parliament's decision-making process. The forecasted alignment could influence key decisions, including the election of the Commission President and the direction of key policies, notably on environmental actions.

The seminar not only provided insights into the statistical forecasting of the elections but also set the stage for a broader discussion on the political and policy consequences of such a shift.

Simon Hix is currently working on a new Voting Advice Application tool, which matches how citizens’ political preferences align with the voting behaviour of members of European Parliament.

Last update: 29 February 2024

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